by Asia Sentinel Correspondent

Malaysia’s highest court is expected next
week to finally deliver a long-delayed verdict on whether opposition
leader Anwar Ibrahim was guilty of sodomy in a 2008 case brought by a
former aide.
The appeal of the appellate court’s
guilty verdict was heard at the end of October in the Federal Court
after nine days of arguments. The top tribunal was expected to deliver
its verdict at that time but for inexplicable reasons it has been
delayed for more than three months. The date for the verdict now is
February 10.
The Federal Court Judges know what they must do
In Malaysia’s courts, political cases are
rarely if ever decided on their merits. That has been glaringly true of
the charges against Anwar. The case has been marred by a long series of
procedural errors and a list of suspicious events and rulings. As with a
previous sodomy case brought in 1998, the charges against Anwar have
been condemned by human rights groups and governments across the world.
Anwar was ordered freed by a High Court
in Kuala Lumpur in 2011, only to be convicted on appeal in the appellate
court in 2013. If he is now convicted in the Federal Court, it would
effectively finish his political career at the age of 67. He faces
several years in prison and Malaysian electoral law prohibits those
convicted of crimes from running for five years after being freed.
A conviction would also throw into doubt
the survival of the three-party Pakatan Rakyat coalition, which is held
together by little more than Anwar’s leadership and a desire to unseat
the ruling coalition by three vastly dissimilar parties – the Chinese
socialist Democratic Action Party, the fundamentalist Islamic Parti
Islam se-Malaysia, or PAS, and Anwar’s own Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR),
mostly made up of moderate urban ethnic Malays. The parties have been
squabbling for months over a variety of issues.
Friends, Enemies and In-between
Given the verdict delay, Malaysia’s
political tea-leaf readers are trying to figure out what has been going
on. It is widely assumed that the top court will take its cues from the
leadership of the United Malays National Organization and Prime
Minister, Najib Tun Razak. It had been assumed that UMNO wanted Anwar
jailed to eliminate a dangerous political rival. That may not be true
any longer, given the complex political drama being played out within
UMNO.
The case now has been further muddied by
events outside the courtroom, in which former Prime Minister Mahathir
Mohamad – Anwar’s one-time boss – is seeking to bring down Najib.
“More than Najib, the one person who
really wants to see Anwar in jail is Mahathir, and Mahathir has been on
the offensive against Najib,” said John Malott, a former US Ambassador
to Malaysia and a severe critic of the government. “So if ‘the enemy of
my enemy is my friend’, it is in Najib’s interest to keep Anwar free to
continue to be Mahathir’s nemesis. Mahathir’s hatred of Anwar is almost
pathological at this point. Anwar said he is willing to submit evidence
to the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission against Mahathir’s dearly
beloved crony Number 1, the former Finance Minister, Daim Zainuddin. The
next general election is a few years down the road, but Mahathir’s
threat to Najib is real and now. From a legal point of view, it is
obvious that Anwar is not guilty.
“And from a political point of view, on
balance, it is in Najib’s interest to keep Anwar out of jail, so he can
continue to keep Mahathir off-balance, and in doing so keep himself in
power.”